Migration Risks in Catastrophic Food Failures: Testing Theory, Learning from Crises, Building Resilience


Background

Global catastrophic food failures (GCFFs) are an underexplored but critical threat to human security. While the theoretical underpinnings of migration under stress — Gravity Models, Pressure and Release, Access Models, vulnerability typologies — are well documented, the evidence base is thinner when it comes to how these theories hold up against real-world crises.

ALLFED and affiliated researchers have already completed a literature review that lays the theoretical foundations. What is needed now is applied research that tests these ideas against historical cases, brings in behavioural perspectives, and develops policy-relevant recommendations.

This student project will provide exactly that. The work will be student-led, with Noah Wescombe (ALLFED) supervising, supporting quality assurance, and co-authoring the final output. The aim is a publishable paper that makes a meaningful contribution to migration and global catastrophic risk research.

Purpose of the Project

The project will:

● Translate migration theory into applied analysis of past food crises.

● Identify the strengths and gaps of existing models when tested against empirical evidence.

● Explore the role of behavioral and cultural factors in shaping migration and immobility.

● Gently explore resilience-oriented policy options that could reduce displacement pressures in future GCFFs

Research Questions

The student team will guide the inquiry, but suggested starting questions are:

  1. Do the main migration models explain what happened during historical food crises?

  2. What non-structural factors (trust, culture, psychology, politics) changed how people responded?

  3. How do food crises interact with cascading risks (conflict, health, governance failures)?

  4. What practical strategies could governments, NGOs, and finance actors use to prevent or manage crisis-driven migration?

Approach

The project will proceed in three stages:

1. Case-Based Testing

Students select two or three food-related crises simulation scenarios for GCFF and compare theoretical predictions with observed migration outcomes.

2. Behavioral Dimensions

Drawing from disaster psychology, behavioral economics, and qualitative NGO reports, students assess how individuals and communities make migration decisions under stress.

3. Forward-Looking Scenarios

The team drafts simple narrative GCFF scenarios (no heavy modeling required) and discusses potential migration pathways and resilience measures. Throughout, students will drive the research design, analysis, and writing. Supervision will focus on framing, methodological guidance, and ensuring the output meets publication standards.

Outputs

● Case Study Analyses (student-authored drafts).

● Behavioral Note (synthesis of psychological and cultural drivers).

● Scenario Exploration (student-written “what if” narratives).

● Final Co-Authored Paper, 25–30 pages, suitable for submission to journals such as Global Environmental Change, Disasters, or Climate Risk Management.

Roles and Responsibilities

Student Team: Lead the research, draft sections, coordinate analysis, and integrate findings.

Supervisor (N. Wescombe, ALLFED): Provide direction and feedback, ensure coherence across sections, guide journal targeting, and co-author introduction, discussion, and conclusion.

This balance gives students ownership while embedding the project firmly within ALLFED’s broader research program.

If accepted, further information and documentation will be made available, including work conducted on this topic by ALLFED so far. This will aid initiation.

Noah Wescombe is a Policy Lead at ALLFED where he and Senior Specialist in Climate Resilience at Cadlas. Previously he was a research advisor at the Cambridge Existential Risks Imitative and a research fellow at the Stanford Existential Risks Imitative. He received his masters in philosophy at Oxford University.